NRF Predicts Uptick in US Retail Sales for 2026

US retail sales are likely to grow this year as steady employment, larger tax refunds and an easing of inflation outweigh economic uncertainty, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

The trade body expects the year’s total sales to rise 4.4% from 2025 to $5.6 trillion, it said last week. The forecast compares with a 3.6% average annual sales growth rate over the past decade, excluding the pandemic. While the NRF generally gives a range for its prediction, this year it was able to provide a more solid number based on a newly enhanced forecasting approach it developed together with Oxford Economics, it explained.

“Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025, even as broader economic conditions fluctuated,” said NRF CEO Matthew Shay. “We expect that consumer resilience to continue into 2026, with household spending once again serving as a pillar of economic support.”

Although tensions in the Middle East are affecting global markets and adding uncertainty to the economy, the NRF believes the “underlying fundamentals of the US economy will support continued stability in the year ahead,” it stated.

However, the spending outlook is still divided between higher- and lower-income consumers, with the higher end driving the majority of spending growth, Shay commented.

“Consumer activity is expected to receive a modest boost in the first half of the year from larger refunds associated with tax cuts,” the NRF added. “Inflation is projected to remain elevated through midyear before easing by the third quarter, offering some relief to households as the year progresses.”

Image: Shoppers at a mall in Grapevine, Texas. (Shutterstock)